Experts and stakeholders in the defence and security sector have expressed concerns over the recent withdrawal of the Republic of Niger from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF).
MNJTF is a regional military coalition between Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and Niger, strengthened to combat Boko Haram and Islamic States of West African Province (ISWAP) terrorists in the Lake Chad Basin.
Dr Sani Abubakar, an Expert in Military Studies, in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), on Wednesday, attributed the decision of Niger to mistrust and realignment.
Abubakar said that the new alliance and economic block by the Sahel states of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, with the support of Russia could be a major reason for Niger’s withdrawal.
”I don’t know how the Nigerien junta got their intelligence that says Nigeria is supporting terrorists to cause instability in Niger especially in attacking their oil facilities.
”I strongly disagree with that notion. But who knows, this bogus intelligence might come from the Russians or Gen. Tchiani.
”He just formulated the story to use it as an excuse to accuse Nigeria and exit the MNJTF.
”I understand that Niger is facing a serious problem from the terrorists and jihadists who have succeeded in vandalising 80 per cent of its oil installation, especially the pipelines.
”At the moment Niger is having serious problems with the CNPC, their major partner, but withdrawing from the MNJTF is a mistake, and I am using this medium to advise Niamey to have a rethink,’’ he said.
Abubakar also believed that Niger Republic would be the biggest loser leaving the MNJTF, adding that it would only freeze MNJTF operations in its territory and not affect Chad, Nigeria, and Cameroun.
According to him, it will only complicate its internal security problems. So I advice the military junta leader to allow Niger go back to the MNJTF and collaborate with other sister countries to help him defeat his internal problem.
”The ECOWAS just launched its Standby Force, but because Niger has left, it cannot benefit from this positive development.
”And now, it has left the MNJTF. This is a strategic blunder of great consequence.”
Similarly, Dr Abdullahi Jabi, Secretary General, International Institute of Professional Security (IIPS), said the move would compound the security station in the Lake Chad region.
Jabi also believed that the decision of Niger would put Nigeria in a difficult position being a leading funder of the MNJTF, troop’s deployment and equipment.
He said that military juntas in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso had exposed the weaknesses of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
According to him, there will be alignment of forces for economic interests and that is why the U.S and Russia are coming in to Niger and you know that what they use in producing arms and ammunitions is dominant in Niger.
Meanwhile, Dr Bulama Bukarti, Vice President at Bridgeway Foundation, wrote on his X page titled. “Niger Withdraws from the MNJTF: A Dangerous Security Gamble’’.
Bukarti described the decision as a major setback in the fight against violent extremism, with terrorist groups being the only beneficiaries.
He said that while all MNJTF members would feel the impact of this ‘ill-advised move’, Niger itself stands to suffer the most.
According to him, Niger’s withdrawal will weaken regional counterterrorism efforts, particularly along the Niger-Nigeria-Chad border, a key operational zone for terrorist groups.
”The consequences will likely include disrupting MNJTF operations and intelligence-sharing mechanisms; limiting cross-border military coordination; and creating security gaps that Boko Haram and ISWAP can exploit
”It also includes increasing attacks on civilians, military targets, and humanitarian efforts, especially within Niger.
”With this withdrawal, Niger’s section of the Lake Chad border will become more vulnerable, providing an escape route for Boko Haram and ISWAP fighters whenever they come under military pressure.
”Terrorists will move into areas where MNJTF troops are absent, using them as safe havens to regroup and launch further attacks. This is an act of self-sabotage, driven by political considerations rather than security needs,’’ he said.
Bukarti urged Nigeria, Cameroon, and Chad to step up their efforts by deploying additional troops and resources to the MNJTF to cover the gap left by Niger’s withdrawal.
He also called for more investment in technology-driven intelligence gathering to compensate for the loss of Niger’s cooperation, as well as engage in diplomatic efforts to persuade Niger to reconsider its decision and return to the MNJTF
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